The reproducible baseline combines opponent-adjusted points per drive with expected possessions, then applies explicit bounded adjustments for explosive plays, red-zone performance, quarterback availability, rest/travel, weather, roof, and home context. The sportsbook line is not an input to projected total.
A discrete-score-aware normal approximation estimates Over, Under, and push mass. Fixture probabilities are labeled uncalibrated and cannot authorize release. Ranking score is a research ordering signal and is never presented as win probability.
At the configurable kickoff window, only complete, fresh, calibrated, positive-EV candidates above the point-edge threshold may lock. Zero picks is valid. Once inserted, a unique game/market snapshot preserves all wager and model terms.
Official totals grade against locked lines and prices. Integer ties push; cancellations, postponements, no contests, and provider corrections are preserved through the audit ledger. Closing lines are stored separately.
Fixture mode does not claim live injury, roof, odds, or forecast status. Live play-by-play-derived efficiency requires nflverse refreshes; live markets require The Odds API; forecasts use Open-Meteo. Depth chart interpretation remains an explicit operational input.
No AI overlay is enabled. If one is later added, it must be bounded, logged, factual-input-only, and unable to change eligibility or immutable terms.